Eritrea running out of options in its relations with Ethiopia?
The progress that Ethiopia has been making in a range of areas, political, social and economic has drawn considerable praise from many sources. The government’s policies in several sectors have proved their effect, impacting on the lives of millions. Despite long odds, the peoples of Ethiopia are now seeing for the first time that victory over poverty is within reach. Policies in various sectors are paying off, placing the country on the right trajectory to achieve its economic, social and political objectives within the foreseeable future. There is now light at the end of the tunnel and a sense of optimism among various segments of the population that poverty can, after all, be relegated to the backwater of history. The unveiling this week of the government’s five- year Growth and Transformation Plan has made it clear that Ethiopia is poised to achieve even more effective results in the next few years. The efforts of the government to strengthen the institutions of good governance and self administration have clearly allowed the population at large to give full support to the ongoing development endeavours. As the elections demonstrated, Ethiopians are united in support of the campaign against poverty.
The levels of success that have been registered so far have had effects well beyond the attitudes and aspirations of the peoples of Ethiopia. Recent developments have indicated there is growing awareness on the part of elements that have rejected peaceful dialogue that now is the time to take a long, hard, serious look at their unhelpful, even destructive, positions. The decision by some Ethiopian groups that have been involved in armed opposition for nearly two decades to lay down their arms and accept the Constitution and join in legal political processes is a most welcome development indeed. The decision of the United Western Somali Liberation Front to sign a peace agreement with the government is an important milestone. It will enable the Somali Regional State to take full advantage of the various development initiatives in the country and to further enhance the development of infrastructure in the region for the benefit of the population. The fact that the larger faction of the ONLF is now also in the process of making similar arrangements with the government is another positive step in the right direction. These decisions by these two groups underlines a growing realization among even the most staunch opponents of the political system in Ethiopia, that there has indeed been impressive progress both politically and economically in the country. This obviates the need for engaging in activities that undermine the constitutional order and development and progress. It also demonstrates that the political system is more than adequate to accommodate any and all parties that are prepared to follow a peaceful approach to deal with their differences.
Another development that underlines these changes in attitude is the growing increase in the level of affirmative engagement by the Ethiopian Diaspora and the increasing marginalization of violence-prone opposition forces. As noted above, hundreds of Ethiopians, as well as US and Canadian nationals of Ethiopian origin, recently held a rally in Washington in support of the Government of Ethiopia’s promotion of the country’s national interests. It is encouraging to see such a generous outpouring of support at a time when a few rejectionist elements among the Ethiopian Diaspora are still making desperate efforts to drive a wedge between Ethiopia and its development partners, offering themselves out for hire to any party that has old scores against Ethiopia. This underlines the point that, despite the shrill cacophony of rejectionist propaganda attempting to discredit the efforts of the government in economic development and good governance, the great majority of Ethiopians abroad are well aware of the progress now being registered. By coming out en masse to voice their support for such endeavours irrespective of any political differences they might have, the hundreds of demonstrators sent an unequivocal message that they will never again stand idly by as their country and its people dedicate themselves to making poverty history. This is a very encouraging development indeed, and represents a real shift in the level and nature of participation of the silent majority of the Diaspora in the affairs of their country. It is a clear repudiation of anti-constitutional violent groups and indicates a resolve to bring collective influence to work positively to help produce sustainable economic development and a truly participatory political order.
Not everyone will be happy with these developments, notably the government in Asmara, committed as it has been to scuttling Ethiopia’s progress for a long time. Indeed that almost appears to be the main aim of the PFDJ leadership. It has made a number of efforts to wreak havoc in Ethiopia and even to set the whole country ablaze. One attempt to carry this out by open aggression was met by the resolute response of Ethiopia’s armed forces. Eritrea’s leaders rightly drew the unequivocal lesson that they couldn’t afford another round of direct confrontation. That hasn’t, however, stopped the regime in Asmara continuing to make a whole series of other efforts to undermine Ethiopia’s stability and economic progress through the use of elements such as the ONLF, the OLF or die-hard elements of Diaspora-based opposition groups.
Recent developments, however, as mentioned above, indicate that there hasn’t been too much going for the Eritrean government lately. Plot after plot against Ethiopia has repeatedly collapsed, underlining the difficulties of the task they have set themselves. Given the pattern of their behaviour over a decade or more, it would be naïve to expect the leaders of Eritrea to come to terms with the waning of their influence, minimal though it might be, on some of the opposition elements inside or outside Ethiopia, and with the futility of their attempt to derail Ethiopia’s development. Anyone in their right mind would have called it quits long ago, and looked at an alternative of giving peaceful overtures a try. It might be a bitter pill but it would acknowledge the realities of the situation and of the progress Ethiopia is managing to achieve.