Al-Shabaab losing ground after its failed Ramadan offensive in Mogadishu
On 23rd August, Al-Shabaab’s spokesperson in Mogadishu, Sheikh Ali Mohamud Rage, held a press conference on the outskirts of the city to declare “a final offensive”, calling for an all-out attack on AMISOM and TFG forces to eliminate the invaders. He called on the Mujahidin to wipe out foreign forces and those of the TFG and destroy government bases, advising the public to dig holes to protect themselves from AMISOM artillery. His statement was immediately followed by a series of Al-Shabaab attacks from different positions in Bondheere, Hodan and Howlwadaag districts of the city, and the blocking of the main roads.
Earlier, the government had been promising for several months to launch its own offensive against Al-Shabaab positions in Mogadishu. As a result, Al-Shabaab had been building up its own forces in preparation for this, and it was these forces it used in its own Ramadan offensive. It had brought all of its own forces into the capital city, while keeping a sizeable reserve of untrained teenagers nearby. Ignoring statements from the Organization of Islamic Clerics of Somalia that fighting the government and AMISOM did not constitute a Jihad (a holy war), only a political conflict, and that it wasn’t right to carry out fighting during Ramadan, Al-Shabaab attacked on the 17th day of Ramadan.
Before Al-Shabaab was halted and pushed back at the end of the first week of fighting, hundreds of its young teenage fighters had been killed, and more than eight hundred wounded. Many of its fighters ran away. It appears Al-Shabaab itself also killed more than a hundred of its own most seriously wounded on the pretext of speeding them to paradise. This is a new phenomenon, surprising many within its own ranks. Al-Shabaab also lost many of its leading commanders and amirs. Following the defeat of Al-Shabaab fighters, rejuvenated TFG forces have begun to extend their area of control as people have begun to feel confident that Al-Shabaab cannot overrun the government forces and positions as it claimed. In fact, the latest fighting has helped people who had been living under Al-Shabaab control to understand its true colours. Under constant threat of death, they had been forced, however unwillingly, to pay money and fight the “muctadiin” - those who go astray – as Al-Shabaab clerics call the TFG.
There are a number of reasons why Al-Shabaab’s Ramadan offensive was defeated. AMISOM forces were just too powerful. Many of Al-Shabaab’s fighters were simply untrained youth, forced or persuaded into its ranks by false propaganda. There was a visible lack of popular support for Al-Shabaab after it had carried out a whole series of barbaric actions. Most ordinary people are now aware that it is not carrying out the religious activity it claimed to do, but was rather operating some foreign instigated ideology which actually contradicts Islamic principles. The killing of innocents, amputations and suicide bombings can all be considered unethical in traditional Somali culture, and Al-Shabaab propaganda has begun to lose its effect. People have started reacting against Al-Shabaab. Earlier this week, some Al-Shabaab warehouses and other properties in Arafat district were looted.
Al-Shabaab itself has also begun to be affected by internal disagreements. There was dispute about the timing of the offensive. Once Al-Shabaab forces failed to advance towards State House, disputes over tactics and strategy began to surface. Other divisions have become apparent. According to sources inside Al-Shabaab, one main cause of conflict arose over financial matters. As a result Sheikh Muktar Robow Abu Mansur has withdrawn the Al-Shabaab fighters from the Digil and Mirifle clans. He has also demanded that the Amir of Al-Shabaab, Ahmed Abdi Aw-Mohamed “Godane” and Fu’ad Mohamed Khalaf Shangole, who commanded the offensive in Mogadishu, should resign. Fu‟ad Shangole recently went down to Kismayo to try to recruit more forces, even seizing children as young as ten to be trained at the old meat factory there.
The foreign element within Al-Shabaab is trying to resolve what amounts to a power struggle between the top leadership. This is not, however, the first time that Al-Shabaab leaders have fought among themselves. Al-Shabaab is losing public support at a surprising rate, from the pressures caused by forced levies and an enforced Jihad, and from its links to Al-Qaeda’s unpopular and radical version of religion. Power within Al-Shabaab now appears to be falling into the hands of a more militant and extreme group within the organization. There is, therefore, a need for the government to remobilize itself quickly. President Sheikh Sharif should nominate a new prime minister as quickly as possible, and do this in consultation with the Speaker of Parliament, so that a vote of confidence can be carried out in a proper and credible manner. The unity and cohesion of the TFG leadership must be demonstrated in a concrete manner as the international community has demanded. This would encourage the international community to realize the promises it has made and move forward urgently. The promises made at the Mini-Summit in New York and the subsequent ICG meeting in Madrid should be fulfilled as soon as the TFG moves to address the challenges it faces. The setback to Al-Shabaab caused by the defeat of its Ramadan offensive is only a setback. It lost heavily and this, and its internal disputes, has led to its withdrawal from a number of places in Mogadishu and elsewhere. This provides a real opportunity for the international community to redeem its promises and take immediate action to support the TFG and the Djibouti Peace Process.
Meanwhile, the President of Somaliland, Mr. Ahmad Muhammad Silanyo, has accused the Eritrean government of training and arming Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) forces and then smuggling them into Somaliland to clandestinely cross the border into Ethiopia. The President made his statement at a graduation ceremony at the University of Hargeisa earlier this week. He condemned the Eritrean government for organizing and sponsoring the landing of ONLF fighters on Somaliland soil, calling it an act of terrorism, a gross interference in Somaliland's affairs, and a threat to neighbouring countries. The President emphasized that the Somaliland government has now taken steps to counter this and other threats to the country's security. It would also take further measures to prevent any repetition of such activity. The group of about 240 ONLF terrorists, trained and armed by Eritrea, tried to enter Ethiopia via Somaliland last month. They were surrounded on the border between Somaliland and Ethiopia and were either killed or captured. One result of the incursion was that Eritrea was not welcomed at the recent UN Mini-Summit on Somalia in New York.