TFG leadership’s internal squabbles continue despite military progress
The capacity of the leadership of the TFIs in Somalia to shoot themselves in the foot is almost beyond belief. Just at a time when the TFG forces and AMISOM defeated Al-Shabaab’s Ramadan offensive with heavy losses, and made significant, if still small advances in Mogadishu as well as outside the city, President Sheikh Sharif and Speaker Sharif Hassan have become locked in argument over the confirmation by Parliament of the President’s nomination as Prime minister, Mohammed Abdullahi Mohamed, and whether legislators should vote in a secret ballot or in open session. The disagreement has already forced several delays of a parliamentary vote on the prime minister designate, and the President and the Transitional Federal Parliament have yet to agree to move forward to vote on the nomination. In the meantime, the threat posed by Al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islam and their continuous harassment of the population, including the recent arbitrary execution of two teenage girls in Belet Weyn by Al-Shabaab, continue.
On a positive note the international community is now taking developments in Somalia very much more seriously and trying to contribute positively to move the peace process forward as well as assist AMISOM to enable it to discharge its responsibilities fully. Clear messages are being sent to the TFG leadership that it must abandon its internal divisions and wrangling, and work towards accomplishing the transitional tasks necessary before August 2010 and the end of the transitional process. It was in this context that the Security Council last week held meetings on Somalia and on peace and security in Africa. The AU Peace and Security Commissioner Ambassador Lamamra addressed the Security Council on both subjects, providing an extensive briefing on the recent decisions of the African Union’s Peace and Security Council Ministerial meeting on 15th October. This, among other matters, called on the UN Security Council to discharge its responsibilities by endorsing an increase in AMISOM forces to 20,000 as well as to take other measures to help resolve the problem in Somalia. The UN Security Council is expected to meet in the middle of November to decide on the best way forward and on whether the UN will provide the logistical support required for an increase in AMISOM’s forces.
The stalemate in the parliament over the Prime Minister’s confirmation started with a disagreement that arose between groups of MPs on the way its nomination should be carried out. One group wanted open voting to endorse the new Prime Minister, others demanded a secret ballot. Following the original dispute, the problem has extended to a higher level, causing difficulties between the President and the Speaker. The Supreme Court has now issued a decision that the votes should be conducted in the open. There have been reports of intimidation and threats against those who want a secret ballot, though, according to the Speaker, this is in accordance with the internal rules of the Transitional Federal Parliament. The underlying problem, of course, concerns the end of the transition period in ten months time and what should then happen. It can be recalled that there were disagreements within the TFG leadership when former Prime Minister Sharmarke and the Speaker contacted Somalia’s partners on possible options for the end of the transition without consulting the President. It is very clear that some are looking forward to making arrangements under which elements of the TFIs will be able to extend their terms of office after August 2011.
Because of concern over these continuing internal squabbles, the UN Political office for Somalia, the Representative of the African Union Commission and the IGAD Facilitator for Somalia, planned a joint visit to Mogadishu, to assist the TFG leadership in sorting out its problems. As the three envoys from the UN, the AUC, and IGAD were preparing to leave on Tuesday, a message, apparently from the TFG Presidency, said the mission would be unwelcome if it included some delegates. This uncalled-for demand forced the mission to cancel its visit. There was a similar incident some years ago when the then Benadir administration refused to receive a delegation from the Standing Committee for Somalia, organized by the international community to co-ordinate activity for Somalia. The Standing Committee members were told in mid-air not to land in Mogadishu, and were forced to fly to Merca. That incident had the effect of preventing concrete support being offered to the Benadir administration.
It would be a pity if the TFG leadership made a similar mistake in trying to set preconditions on who might visit Mogadishu to offer assistance. It is very clear that IGAD has been particularly insistent that the international community must accept that the TFG is the only legitimate Somali structure in place, and that the Djibouti peace process is the only legitimate way forward. Some in the international community, deploring the continued disputes within the TFG, have already begun to consider the TFG as part of the problem rather than as part of the solution. The Somali leadership has repeatedly managed to divide the international community by its failures to deliver on expectations.
The three institutions, the UNPOS, the AU Commission and IGAD, have now made their position very clear in this regard. After Tuesday’s fiasco, Ambassador Mahiga, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Somalia, led the delegation to Mogadishu the next day with a clear message to the TFG leadership. Ambassador Mahiga conveyed the deep concern of the three institutions about the current constitutional and political impasse within the Transitional Federal Institutions and the delay in the formation of a new government. The envoys recalled that the Security Council had in New York on 21st October considered the request by IGAD and the African Union to expand AMISOM and strengthen TFG forces in an effort to enhance the peace process in Somalia. The envoys noted that these efforts, and the conclusions of the International Contact Group subsequently held in Madrid, reflected the goodwill of the international community. This should be reciprocated positively by the TFIs. The envoys therefore called on all the TFI leaders to set up a new cabinet expeditiously, outline the roadmap that will define the key tasks to be implemented during the remaining transition period, and produce the spirit of political cooperation demanded by the Djibouti Agreement. The three institutions emphasized that the leaders of the TFIs must work in concert with IGAD, the AU and the UN as guarantors of the Djibouti peace agreement, in solving the current crisis and in addressing critical tasks. Ambassador Mahiga met with President Sheikh Sharif and the Speaker of Parliament, urging both to resolve the crisis and move forward rapidly.
In the meantime, the Chairperson of the AU , Dr. Jean Ping, and Ambassador Lamamra, the Peace and Security Commissioner, also briefed the Ambassadors of the members of the Security Council, of IGAD and of the Arab League on current developments in Somalia, on the expectations of Africa from the Security Council concerning the way forward in Somalia. The briefing centred on the challenges that the TFG faces within its own ranks, the situation of AMISOM and what is expected from it in the coming months leading up to the end of the transition period. The Chairperson recalled the signing of the agreement between the TFG and Ahlu Sunna wal Jama’a and the challenges this agreement had faced in implementation. He emphasized just how far the squabbles within the TFG pose a challenge to consolidating the peace process. He noted that next month, November, AMISOM would reach its authorized levels of 8,000 troops. Pending the approval of the UN Security Council, it is planned to increase numbers to 12,000 in February or March next year. The Chairperson mentioned the decisions of the PSC on 15th October on Somalia and the nomination of former Ghanaian President Jerry Rawlings as the AU’s High Representative for Somalia. He emphasized that the AU has done all that could be expected of it; it was now up to the members of the UN Security Council to do their part. All external actors providing support to the TFG should ensure that the resources provided are properly used for the purpose of strengthening the TFG institutions rather than encouraging dissension and division. At the end of the briefing, Commissioner Lamamra responded to questions.