Somalia continues to face challenges
Somalia's challenges have yet to be addressed. The number of foreign extremist elements joining Al-Shabab and Hizbul Islam continues to grow. The support the TFG is getting in real terms is not increasing as needed. The support provided to the extremists is more coordinated and higher compared to what the TFG is actually receiving. The TFG is not assisting itself either. The differences among the leadership have yet to be resolved. There is a lack of identifying priorities for the leadership. There is a need to put the implementation of the Agreement between the TFG and Ahlu Sunna on a fast track. Naming a new cabinet is also in the pipeline with a view to reducing its size so as to make it efficient and manageable and to enable it to concentrate on urgent issues of security as well as creating a situation conducive for a smooth transition.
The question here is whether this is the right time to engage in this exercise. Although some of these are concerns that should be addressed expeditiously, it does not mean that there is no progress at all on the ground. The TFG, after signing the agreement with Ahlu Sunna, has expanded its constituency. Ahlu Sunna in coordination with the TFG is taking measures in the security sector including in Mogadishu and these efforts are showing progress. This does not, of course, mean that Somalia is out of the woods or even closer to being so yet. But mere scepticism does not make sense either. The talk of some so-called experts portraying the TFG as the worst option is not only unhelpful but also dangerous. This needs to stop.
In the meantime, there are reports coming from Mogadishu indicating divisions within Hizbul Islam. Negotiations have been underway for weeks between representatives of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and a group of moderate members of Hizbul Islam, according to Somali Interior Ministry spokesman Abdelrasak Qaylow. "The talks are at a good point" and the government "hopes to achieve similar results to those obtained with other movements", he said.
On the other hand, following the decision of the IGAD Council of Ministers last week, a team of military officers from IGAD is currently visiting Mogadishu to assess the security situation on the ground. The team is expected to have discussions with the TFG leadership, as well as representatives of AMISOM. IGAD is expected to hold an extraordinary Summit in early July to look at developments in Somalia and how best to assist the TFG. The Ministers of IGAD in their recent extraordinary session have made it clear that the current status quo is unacceptable and it should change. The international community should also redouble its effort so as to enable the TFG move forward.
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Meanwhile, Somaliland is preparing itself for the long awaited election on 26th June. The parties concluded their campaigns on 23rd June in a peaceful manner. This shows the commitment of the people of Somaliland to a peaceful election and their rejection of unrest. It is hoped that this will continue until elections are concluded successfully. The three parties need to continue to work together in this regard to ensure that the peace and stability of Somaliland will continue for the years to come. There is a test of leadership here. The electoral commission is handling the process in a manner that won the trust of the people of Somaliland as well as that of the international community that is fully supporting the process. The electoral commission should continue to discharge its responsibility in the same way in the coming days. It needs the full support of the people in this process. The electoral commission is the one that announces the results, not political parties. The parties should desist from claims and counter claims during or after the elections and should allow the electoral process to take its natural course. They should recognize that silly mistakes on their part can undermine the legitimacy of the process and affect the efforts of the people to live in peace. The successful and peaceful conclusion of the election would certainly enable Somaliland to be an example and will provide added impetus to peace and stability in this troubled region.