An Egyptian columnist’s view of Ethio-Egypt Relations
Prime Minister Meles’ recent remarks about Egypt, suggesting that Egypt had supported Ethiopian rebels, has been met by ‘surprise and amazement’ from Egyptian officials expressing astonishment at what they called an unsubstantiated claim. Egyptian officials including President Mubarak have strongly denied whatever Prime Minister Meles might say that Egypt had ever supported Ethiopian rebels. Such protestations of innocence are to be expected, though being ‘surprised’ was a little overstated perhaps. Actually, officials were not the only people to be surprised by the claim. In a recent article entitled “The Curse of the Nile”, Mr. Kahled Diab, a columnist for the Guardian, was apparently equally surprised, or more accurately, outraged by the Prime Minister’s remarks. The reference to Egypt providing support to Ethiopian rebel groups is not the only thing he is taking issue with. He is also angered by PM Meles’ remark - or boasting according to Mr. Diab - that Egypt could not win in a war with Ethiopia over the Nile. As to Egypt’s support for Ethiopian rebels, he simply dismisses the Prime Minister’s claim as ‘wild allegations’.
Egyptian officials, although surprised and amazed, have hardly been so forcefully dismissive. They have after all been apprised of Ethiopia’s concerns about this on a number of occasions. They have been told several times that Ethiopia had incontrovertible evidence of their support for anti-Ethiopia elements. It would of course be surprising if officials would publicly admit to doing any such thing, but Mr. Diab statement that there is “no shred of evidence” to back up these “allegations”’ is based merely on his own ignorance. It’s a text book case of the fallacy of ignorance; something doesn’t exist because Mr. Diab doesn’t know about it. It’s not uncommon for journalists and commentators to work in an evidence-free zone, substituting wishes for truth. What is, however, surprising is the fact that Mr. Diab himself acknowledges that many Ethiopians may be inclined to believe the claim “simply because Egypt has previous form when it comes to meddling in Ethiopia’s affairs.” He adds that this had disappeared under the current government. The Ethiopian government sincerely hopes that is now the case.
More irritating to Mr. Diab it appears is the warning that no one who has tried to invade Ethiopia “has lived to tell the story” and it would be no different for Egypt. Mr. Diab believes this to be inaccurate, but he rather proves the accuracy of the Prime Minister’s remarks when almost inadvertently he refers to the failed attempts of Egypt to invade Ethiopia in the 1870s. There’s no point in spending time in referring to a merely hypothetical scenario either, but we should certainly point out that Mr. Diab has twisted the words of PM Meles to make them sound like a call for arms against Egypt. The subtitle of Mr. Diab’s and his reference to “water wars’ perhaps explains his view, but contrary to his allegations, the prime Minister wasn’t beating a war drum; he was simply warning against the possibility. As Mr. Diab should well know, sabre-rattling against Ethiopia has been something of a default reflex action of Egyptian military and civilian officials for a long time. Mr. Diab correctly indicates that President Mubarak has shown signs of taking a more nuanced and conciliatory approach than his predecessors towards relations with Ethiopia, but that has not always prevented officials from voicing a different attitude.
Far from joining in this kind of useless rhetoric, Ethiopia’s leaders for the last two decades have consistently worked towards a peaceful dialogue for a win-win outcome on all areas of difference between the two countries - real or perceived. Ethiopia’s leaders know firsthand the problems of war, most recently following Eritrea’s invasion of Ethiopia in 1998. They are the last people to play with fire. The government’s track record has been consistent to a fault in this regard. At the same time, no government can remain oblivious of the threats coming from certain areas or let its guard down in the face of these. It is not a question of posturing but of warning against conflict.
On a more fundamental level, Ethiopia certainly doesn’t believe in antagonising Egypt merely to enhance its own interests. Central to the concerns of both countries today is the equitable use of Nile waters. Here, Ethiopia has been consistently pursuing a policy of constructive engagement with Egypt on all issues of mutual concern – both bilaterally and in the context of the entire Nile Basin. As Prime Minister Meles has reiterated time and again, the Nile should serve as a strong bond, a link, between the two countries, not a source of conflict. It is certainly time Egypt recognised that the staggering inequality in the share of Nile waters that Mr. Diab refers to must change. It must join in good faith in seeking a win-win arrangement under which all the countries of the Nile basin can have equitable utilisation of resources. Mr. Diab refers to “Egypt’s expressed commitment to sharing the river” but what is currently preventing any such agreement becoming a reality is the continued effort of Egypt to sabotage the whole process of negotiation over the Nile Basin, apparently in the hope it will continue to enjoy its virtual monopoly over the Nile waters. Encouraging his government into intransigence, Mr. Diab worries that Egypt can “barely make ends meet with its current mega quota of Nile water”. “With a burgeoning population and an even drier climate”, Egypt will need even more water in the future. This is the reason why “it has been blocking moves to change quotas.”
Mr. Diab seems to believe that the situation could make for war among the Nile riparian countries unless there is “careful diplomacy, the development of more appropriate alternative sources of water (including desalination) and, above all, urgent population control.” These might all be sensible, but none of them preclude an agreement on a Nile Basin framework on the basis of which all the riparian countries work together. This is, of course, what Ethiopia and the other upper basin countries have been calling for all along. They have agreed. The onus is now on Egypt, and to some extent on Sudan, to prove that they can be equal to the task of agreeing to such a framework. It might also be helpful if Egypt could realise that sabre-rattling is not going to win any games. People like Mr. Diab do no service to their country if they continue to harp on the same outdated string and refuse to join the growing number of those Egyptians who are becoming ever more realistic.